Intrinsic fluctuations in global connectivity reflect transitions between states of high and low prediction error

While numerous researchers claim that the minimization of prediction error (PE) is a general force underlying most brain functions, others argue instead that PE minimization drives low-level, sensory-related neuronal computations but not high-order, abstract cognitive operations. We investigated this issue using behavioral, fMRI, and EEG data. Studies 1A/1B examined semantic- and reward-processing PE using task-fMRI, yielding converging evidence of PE’s global effects on large-scale connectivity: high-PE states broadly upregulated ventral-dorsal connectivity, and low-PE states upregulated posterior-anterior connectivity. Investigating whether these global patterns characterize cognition generally, Studies 2A/2B used resting-state fMRI and showed that individuals continuously fluctuate between ventral-dorsal (high-PE) and posterior-anterior (low-PE) dynamic connectivity states. Additionally, individual differences in PE task responses track differences in resting-state fluctuations, further endorsing that these fluctuations represent PE minimization at rest. Finally, Study 3 used combined fMRI-EEG and showed that these resting-state ventral-dorsal and posterior-anterior PE networks specifically oscillate at 3-6 Hz. This whole-brain layout and timeline together speak to high/low-PE fluctuations playing a role in integrative and general sub-second cognitive operations.