Learned Geometry, Predicted Binding: Structurally-Based Prediction of Peptide:MHC Binding Using AlphaFold 3 Enables CD4 T Cell Epitope Prediction

The accurate prediction of T cell epitope peptides within proteins of interest has a wide range of applications, but is complicated by the multiple determinants of antigenicity, the polymorphism of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) locus, and the great diversity of possible peptide antigens. Leading in silico methods use a variety of statistical approaches to learn from sequences identified through both in vitro MHC binding and peptide elution studies, but their performance remains imperfect, particularly for MHC II-restricted responses. Here we present MHCIIFold-GNN, an entirely orthogonal solution to this problem that combines three new elements: (i) a highly-multiplexed peptide:MHCII binding assay, (ii) generalizable structural modeling using AlphaFold3, and (iii) transfer learning with a Graph-based Neural Network. Trained exclusively on newly-generated in vitro binders, we show that MHCIIFold-GNN enables state-of-the-art prediction of CD4 T cell epitopes presented by diverse MHC II proteins, on par with non-structural methods that rely on much larger datasets including naturally-processed ligands. Moreover, when MHCIIFold-GNN and a leading non-structural method are combined, we observe unparalleled performance on a held-out test set (11 % boost), underscoring the orthogonality of the methods. These results highlight the power of a new class of structure-informed approaches to the CD4 T cell epitope prediction problem.