Physically-based transposition of a mesoscale convective system

Storm transposition is a cornerstone of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation. Yet, according to a recent report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, "a solid scientific foundation for storm transposition is not available". In this article, a new approach to storm transposition is presented and applied to a mesoscale convective system. Steering of the storm toward the target basin is achieved by leveraging internal variability—that is, the intrinsic spread in the outcomes of a numerical weather prediction model, arising from the nonlinear nature of the atmospheric system and its sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions. Basin-average precipitation depth is subsequently maximized through initial and boundary condition shifting.