The Impact of Land Transfer on the Way Of Old-age care of Elderly Farmers in China：an empirical analysis based on the endogenous conversion probit model

Based on data from the 2018 China Health and Aging Survey (CHARLS), this paper employs an endogenous switching probit model to analyze the impact of land transfer on the way of Chinese elderly farmers care. The study finds that, first, after land transfer, Chinese elderly farmers prefer to choose family retirement, and the above conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. Second, the mechanism analysis shows that land transfer pushes elderly farmers to choose family old-age care through dual paths, namely, the effect of children living with them and non-farm employment, respectively. Third, further analysis shows that elderly farmers in eastern China and the main grain-producing areas tend to choose family old-age pension after land transfer, while elderly farmers in western China and the main non-grain-producing areas tend to choose individual old-age pension. Finally, age, gender, pension insurance ownership, the need to take care of grandchildren, children's satisfaction, and daily life ability all have a significant impact on the aging styles of elderly farmers.Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes recommendations such as strengthening the family-based elderly care support system, enhancing re-employment support and safety net protection for elderly farmers, and improving the rural social security system. In view of the special characteristics of the western region of China, It was proposed that the central government should increase its transfer payments to western regions, specifically for the construction of elderly care facilities; encourage social participation in elderly care to fill the gap in family-based care; and strengthen support for family-based care by improving family income through industrial poverty alleviation.