The global burden and international disparities in edentulism among older adults from 1990 to 2021, with projections extending to 2050

Objective Edentulism severely impacts quality of life, leading to nutritional deficiencies and socio-psychological challenges. With global aging, its prevalence among the elderly is expected to rise, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study uses GBD 2021 data to assess edentulism's burden from 1990–2021 and predict trends until 2050. Methods We analyzed prevalence, DALYs, ASPR, and ASDR using GBD 2021 data. APC models assessed trends by age, period, and cohort. Health inequality was evaluated via regression and concentration curves, while decomposition analysis identified contributing factors. BAPC models predicted future burden. Results From 1990–2021, ASPR and ASDR declined in high-SDI regions but rose in low-SDI regions. Globally, ASPR decreased from 25,938.99 to 23,136.32 per 100,000, and ASDR from 693.9 to 617.35, with EAPCs of -0.44 and − 0.45, respectively. Bolivia, Peru, and Brazil had the highest burden in 2021. APC models showed significant age, period, and cohort effects, with higher SDI regions having lower inequality. Decomposition linked burden changes to aging, population growth, and epidemiological shifts. BAPC projects a rising burden over 30 years. Conclusion Edentulism remains a critical public health issue, with growing prevalence expected. Addressing it requires global and regional collaboration to ensure equitable, sustainable oral healthcare.