Quantifying the Impacts of Land Use Transitions on Human-Elephant Conflict in Peninsular Malaysia: Implication for Sustainable Landscape Planning

Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are keystone species in Southeast Asia's tropical ecosystems yet are increasingly threatened by habitat loss due to land-use change. Rapid agricultural and urban expansion has caused major habitat fragmentation and increased human–elephant conflict (HEC) in Southern Peninsular Malaysia. This study quantifies how specific land-use transitions influence the spatial intensity and temporal patterns of HEC. Using kernel density mapping in ArcGIS and transition modeling with TerrSet’s Land Change Modeler, we developed a conflict risk framework integrated into a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to assess relationships between land transitions and conflict intensity. We predicted the short- and long-term impacts of key land-use transitions on HEC. Anthropogenic transitions, particularly forest to plantation, and idle land to plantation were found to significantly increase HEC risk, while transitions toward natural land cover, especially forest, tend to reduce conflict over time. Notably, recovery from plantation to forest requires nearly twice the time needed to offset the HEC impact caused by forest to plantation transitions. These findings highlight the role of land-use decisions in shaping conflict dynamics and underscore ecological restoration as a long-term mitigation strategy. The insights offer practical guidance for sustainable planning and targeted HEC management in conflict-prone landscapes.