Regulatory Impact Assessment of the High Salt Menu Labeling and Physical Activity Calorie Labeling Regulations in Saudi Arabia

Background: Noncommunicable diseases remain the leading cause of mortality in Saudi Arabia, with dietary risk factors, such as high calorie, fat, and sodium intake, playing a major role. The purpose of this study was to quantify the regulatory impact of two national policies—menu labeling with physical activity equivalents (SFDA.FD 5029) and high-salt warning icons (SFDA.FD 5026)—on dietary intake, mortality risk, and life expectancy. Methods: A probabilistic modeling approach was applied using a structural causal model framework. The inputs included national data on food consumption, compliance levels among food establishments, and behavioral adherence. All parameters were modeled using probability distributions to reflect variability and uncertainty. The results were generated under the baseline scenarios and policy scenarios. Results: Under the policy scenario, average daily energy intake decreased by 245 kcal (from 2391 to 2146 kcal), fat intake declined from 37% to 35% of total energy, and sodium intake decreased from 1470.8 mg to 1306.1 mg. These changes were associated with a projected reduction of 164,793 lifetime deaths, representing a 31% decline. Cardiovascular deaths decreased from 334,221 to 232,424, and diabetes-related deaths fell by 46%. Life expectancy increased from 74.6 to 76.4 years (+1.8 years). Conclusions: The application of these regulatory policies is expected to result in meaningful reductions in dietary risk exposure, substantially lower mortality attributable to nutrition-related chronic diseases, and an increase of 1.8 years in national life expectancy.