Economic Deprivation, Diminished Social Support, and Loneliness: An Empirical Test of the EDSL Model Using UK Biobank Data

Background Loneliness is increasingly recognized as a major public health concern shaped by both economic and social structures. However, prior research often examined these determinants in isolation, limiting understanding of their combined effects. Methods We proposed and tested the Economic Deprivation, Support Diminution, and Loneliness (EDSL) Model using UK Biobank data (N = 232,477). Economic deprivation was assessed with the Townsend Deprivation Index (TDI) and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), while social support was measured by household size, visit frequency, and confiding frequency. Loneliness was coded as a binary outcome. Machine learning models predicted loneliness, with SHAP values identifying influential predictors. Structural equation modeling (SEM) examined both direct and indirect pathways from economic deprivation to loneliness. Results XGBoost predicted loneliness well (AUC = 81.35%). SHAP values showed confiding frequency, IMD, and household size as key predictors. SEM confirmed economic deprivation’s direct (β = 0.06) and indirect effects on loneliness via reduced social support (indirect β = 0.07). Conclusions Findings provide robust empirical support for the EDSL Model, showing that economic deprivation fosters loneliness both directly and indirectly by eroding social support. These results highlight the need for integrated public health strategies that address economic hardship while strengthening social connectedness to reduce loneliness. Trial registration: Not applicable.