Dual Carbon Green Energy Analysis — Dongguan, a Major Industrial Hub in Southern China

"Dual Carbon" refers to China’s goals of achieving peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Dongguan, as a major manufacturing base and foreign trade city in China, has a very high share of industrial energy consumption. Most of its energy still comes from thermal power generation, and since raw materials such as coal and gasoline cannot be fully combusted, their burning process produces large amounts of greenhouse gases—one of the main causes of global climate change. Therefore, advancing the energy transition is of paramount importance.This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of all types of green energy, including their costs and output, to optimize the proportional allocation and investment of green energy on the path to carbon neutrality. Existing studies have already projected Dongguan’s CO₂ emissions by 2060 under carbon neutrality. Based on Dongguan’s 2023 energy data, this study explores potential pathways for the energy transition by constructing a system of linear programming equations using the idealized costs and annual output of green energy. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to model possible scenarios, and the integration of linear programming and Monte Carlo methods yields the optimal strategy for achieving carbon neutrality. The findings suggest that expanding photovoltaic, wind, and nuclear power facilities can significantly increase the share of green energy, thereby offsetting excess CO₂ emissions and enabling Dongguan to reach carbon neutrality before 2060.