Does aging hinder growth? A provincial analysis of the effects of population aging on economic growth in Thailand

Population aging is a global phenomenon that poses significant challenges for many countries, including Thailand, as it transitions toward becoming a super-aged society while still being classified as a middle-income country. This article examines the spatial relationship between population aging and economic performance in Thailand. By applying spatial econometric approach to analyze a province-level dataset covering all 77 provinces of Thailand from 2012 to 2021, the findings reveal a strong spatial correlation between aging population and GDP per capita. Specifically, the study highlights that an increase in the old-age dependency ratio does not hinder economic growth, whereas the adverse effects become apparent with a higher proportion of older workers in the workforce. Addressing demographic challenges by implementing policies focused on human capital development, healthcare, and social security systems, along with enhancing labor force productivity, are key strategies for sustaining economic growth. JEL Codes: J11, J14, O11, O15